EUR/USD Price Analysis: Slow grind to north pauses above 1.0300

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Inventory distribution stretches ahead of Fed policy

  • EUR/USD remains sidelined around monthly top, recently pressured near intraday low.
  • RSI conditions, sustained break of five-week-old resistance keep buyers hopeful above 1.0280 short-term key support.
  • 61.8% Fibonacci retracement guards immediate recovery, 200-SMA acts as an extra downside filter.

EUR/USD renews intraday low near 1.0315 during Friday Asian session, snapping four-day uptrend around the monthly peak. In doing so, the major currency pair extends the latest pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its downside move between late June and mid-July.

Although the pullback from an important Fibonacci retracement level suggests further downside of the quote, a convergence of the previous support line from early July and 50% Fibonacci retracement level challenges the bears around 1.0280. Also pushing back the downside bias is the recently firmer RSI.

Even if the EUR/USD pair breaks the 1.0280 support confluence, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0220 and a one-month-old upward sloping support line near 1.0190 will challenge the bears.

Following that, a downward trajectory towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.0110 can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, recovery moves need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 1.0365.

Also challenging the EUR/USD bulls is the June 30 swing high of 1.0490, a break of which could propel prices towards a late June peak of 1.0614.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected


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